Dr. Stelzenmüller on German Election Results

On Friday, October 16, 2009, I took part in a luncheon discussion organized by WorldBoston in Boston that featured Dr. Constanze Stelzenmüller, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. in Berlin. A terrific speaker, with an exceptional resume that includes law and graduate degrees from schools here in the US (Harvard) as well as Germany (click here to read more about her background), it did not take long for Constanze to capture the attention of her audience.

There were about 25 of us, all ages and types (students, retirees, executives, one professor, professionals, government representatives etc.), from the US, Austria, Holland and Germany. Her talk touched upon numerous subjects, including the newly formed center-right collation between Angela Merkel’s CDU party and the smaller FDP party, President Obama’s image in Germany, as well as Germany’s role in matters related to transatlantic trade and/or foreign policy issues.

Here are a few of the highlights:

- Approval ratings in Germany of US foreign relations jumped from 30% during the President Bush years to 92% since President Obama took office. It is the biggest bounce in history, and likely the largest one worldwide.

- This high rate creates a problem for President Obama: Over-expectations. Digging deeper, it seems that the ratings are substantially lower when looking at specific issues – as opposed to US/German relations overall.

- In Germany, President Obama is viewed as a great speaker, diligent, and competent. But, people fear there are issues or concerns regarding the implementation of his ideas. “Where do we take his speeches?” There is doubt that they can be converted into action items.

- Germans would love to see President Obama succeed. However, they also realize that he has a lot of domestic (US) issues he needs to deal with and that take up his bandwidth (i.e. healthcare). How much time/effort will he be able to dedicate towards German/US agendas?

- Although Germany has now a center-right leaning government, the population in large seems to be more center left… This may lesson the chances for meaningful reform.

- About Germany’s new Foreign Minister, FDP’s leader Guido Westerwelle: Has little foreign policy experience and can’t resist going with the populous voices…

- As a result of its new political leadership, and potentially lackluster results, the question arises if Germany is going to become “one giant Switzerland” (this was not meant as a positive…)

- About Angela Merkel: She is a “moderator”, does not like being decisive.

- German people’s anti-nuclear power stems from the Chernobyl disaster – it was closer to Germany than i.e. to the UK or France. Other concerns regarding using more nuclear power in the future is the fact that there are very few nuclear engineers available and the aging of Germany’s nuclear power plants. All this has contributed to a huge push into Wind, Solar and Hydrogen related energy initiatives (Germany is viewed by many as the undisputed leader when it comes to “Green” or alternative energy sources).

- Germany’s energy dependence on Russia is in the 30’s (percentage wise).

- Quote of the day: “Globalization leads to Aspiration”

Constanze Stelzenmüller’s talk was followed by a Q&A session during which other topics were brought up (i.e. the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany’s involvement in Afghanistan, it’s future as a G7 nation, NATO, UN’s Security Council). No doubt, all of us would have loved to stay longer.

What I liked best about Constanze’s presentation was the way she chose to deliver her thoughts, insights, and concerns. Rather then lecturing, or simply informing, her method was a lot more subtle and “real”. Having lived, worked, and studied both in the US as well as in Germany (and caring deeply about Germany and it’s role in the world), she did a magnificent job incorporating the various perspectives and observational vantage points she gained over the years. No doubt, although the challenges Germany & the US are facing domestically as well as internationally are immense, if people like Constanze are involved in the process of finding solutions, one can feel a lot more optimistic.